Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/2116Z from Region 1618 (N08W13). Although this region retains weak
beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it has experienced
intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remain
fairly stable. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at
21/2303Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin the forecast period at mostly quiet levels until the arrival of
the 20 Nov CME midday on day one (23 Nov) when conditions are expected
to rise to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods.
Conditions have a chance for reaching major storm levels early on day
two (24 Nov) with the expected arrival of the 21 Nov CME. On day three
(25 Nov) conditions are expected to return to unsettled to active levels
due to CME combined with high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 128 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 015/020-021/030-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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