Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and
three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 322 km/s at
03/1909Z. Total IMF reached 5.5 nT at 03/1220Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.3 nT at 03/1209Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 129 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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