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Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 January 2013

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at 17/0305Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14.1 nT at 17/1448Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 17/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), active levels on day two (19 Jan), and minor storm levels again on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 123
  Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  008/010-010/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%35%55%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (652.2 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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