Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 17/0305Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/1526Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14.1 nT at 17/1448Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
17/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), active levels on day
two (19 Jan), and minor storm levels again on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 123 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 008/010-010/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 35% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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