Viewing archive of Friday, 1 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03
Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 382 km/s at 01/2111Z.
Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2055Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -7.6 nT at 01/2047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (02 Feb, 03 Feb,
04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 104 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 007/012-012/018-009/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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