Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/2325Z from Region 1726 (N13W49). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
483 km/s at 24/1927Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 24/0955Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 24/0927Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27
Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 115 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 016/018-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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