Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 01 1206 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
01 May 2013	160	016
02 May 2013	163	007
03 May 2013	163	007

Bulletin

We expect active conditions (M-class flares likely) to prevail for the next 48 hours. NOAA ARs 1730 and 1731 can still produce an isolated flare of that magnitude. C-class flares are expected from NOAA ARs 1732 and 1734. On May 1st, NOAA AR 1730 produced a C9.6 flare at 01:26 UT (peak time) and a C5.5 flare at 0729 UT (peak time), but no associated CME can be observed. In contrast, a rather wide CME occurred on May 1st around 0248 UT (LASCO C2 observations) on the East limb, but it is a backside event and is not geoeffective. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet within the next 48 hours, with isolated periods of active conditions. Current conditions are unsettled to active at planetary level (Kp=4) and at local level (K=4 at Dourbes between 06 and 09 UT). ACE data show, during the last 18 hours, a smooth decrease of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field down to -10 nT, with stronger variations between 0 and -10 nT from 06 UT onward. The source of this activity is not clear at the moment.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Apr 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	105 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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