Viewing archive of Friday, 17 May 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at 17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on days 1-3 (18-20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
Class M75%75%75%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton99%95%90%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 May 136
  Predicted   18 May-20 May 140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        17 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  008/008-017/034-012/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%30%
Minor storm05%30%10%
Major-severe storm01%20%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm25%75%40%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/24M1.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024110.7 -41.8
Last 30 days117.3 -41.4

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001M5
22024M4.7
32024M4.1
42023M2.9
52023M2.6
DstG
11995-65G1
22014-57
32001-55G1
42002-49G1
51990-47
*since 1994

Social networks