Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 May 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 22/1332Z from Region 1745 (N13W80). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 500 km/s at 22/0442Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2357Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu at 22/2035Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 722 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (23 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton99%99%70%
PCAFRED
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 133
  Predicted   23 May-25 May 125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        22 May 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  012/012-007/015-012/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%30%
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%25%45%

All times in UTC

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