Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 419 km/s at
01/0952Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1502 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Aug, 04
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 112 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 006/008-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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