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Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 August 2013

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at 03/1815Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 901 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Aug 107
  Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        03 Aug 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  005/005-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%20%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%40%25%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 18:55 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Norilsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (27.8nT), the direction is slightly South (-4.88nT).

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