Viewing archive of Friday, 25 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
25/1503Z from Region 1882 (S08E59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27
Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at
25/0412Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/0238Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 644 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Oct, 27 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Oct). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 161 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 007/008-007/008-011/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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