Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z100 to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1111Z from Region 1893 (S13, L=100). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
20/2103Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 141
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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