Viewing archive of Friday, 13 December 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/2214Z from Region 1921 (N07E23). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 336 km/s at 13/1339Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1838Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1091 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (16 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 163
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  018/020-013/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%05%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%15%
Major-severe storm60%40%05%

All times in UTC

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