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Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 December 2013

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0913Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 607 km/s at 14/2114Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/0723Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M25%25%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 156
  Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (504 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-64nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.11

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