Viewing archive of Monday, 6 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
06/0019Z from Region 1944 (S09E11). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08
Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
05/2123Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 42 pfu at 06/1600Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 06/1005Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 618 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (09 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07
Jan), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Jan) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 204 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 015/018-012/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 60% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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