Viewing archive of Friday, 31 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1542Z from Region 1968 (N10E29). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 376 km/s at
31/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0404Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/0929Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 166 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 006/005-013/017-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NuukLatest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2161Similar AR 3664 vs AR 4048 ??? 5AR4048 54NOAA space weather enthusiasts darhboard 4AR4046 141
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Monday, 31 March 2025
11:15 UTC - Solar protons
Minor S1 Solar Radiation Storm - Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions
10:45 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.26 flare
10:27 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.22)
00:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.03 flare
Sunday, 30 March 2025
23:51 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.03)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/31 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| Last 30 days | 127.7 -23.5 |