Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/2101Z from Region 2031 (N03W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
488 km/s at 05/2219Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 06/0212Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1121Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (09 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 141 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
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