Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1853Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at
09/0447Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1638Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1645Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet levels on
day two (11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 131 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 007/007-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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