Viewing archive of Friday, 30 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May,
01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
366 km/s at 30/1822Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1843Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1713Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 102 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 May 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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