Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
03/0409Z from Region 2077 (S08E17). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 03/1702Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/1824Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/2233Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Jun, 06
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (05 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 107 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, KuopioTrondheim
Arkhangelsk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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