Viewing archive of Monday, 4 August 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0053Z from Region 2126 (S09, L=327). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug,
07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 04/2018Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1756Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/1807Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (06 Aug, 07
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 139 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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