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Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 August 2014

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/1520Z from Region 2146 (N08W86). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 28/1026Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/0244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 280 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M20%20%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 119
  Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  019/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  010/010-008/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%20%
Minor storm10%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:35 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (22.03nT), the direction is slightly South (-9.28nT).

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23:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

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