Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 16/1927Z from Region 2158 (N16W81). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Sep, 18 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at 16/0144Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1829Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M30%30%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 133
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 130/130/120
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  008/012-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%25%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%25%30%

All times in UTC

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