Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/1254Z from Region 2171 (S10E53). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 586 km/s at 20/1642Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0015Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Sep, 23 Sep) and quiet levels on day two (22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Sep 119
  Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  023/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm30%10%30%

All times in UTC

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