Viewing archive of Friday, 26 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 26/0544Z from Region 2175 (N16W25). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 494 km/s at 26/1404Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1246Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1093 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
Class M65%65%65%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Sep 170
  Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 170/170/175
  90 Day Mean        26 Sep 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  013/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Sep  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  011/015-011/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%50%

All times in UTC

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