Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 October 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. The period began above the M1 threshold, while in recovery from the M2 flare at 14/2121 UTC, from a region around the East limb. No other flares occurred during the period. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 580 km/s at 15/0040Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/2344Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 126
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 130/140/150
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  013/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%30%30%

All times in UTC

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