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Viewing archive of Monday, 20 October 2014

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 20/1637Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 606 km/s at 20/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1616Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1641Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 296 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 185
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 195/200/205
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  015/018-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%40%40%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (513 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.09nT), the direction is slightly South (-9.06nT).

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