Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 October 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 26/1056Z from Region 2192 (S12W46). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 422 km/s at 26/0537Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1801Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3489 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M85%85%85%
Class X55%55%55%
Proton40%45%45%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 217
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 220/220/210
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  011/012-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%25%25%

All times in UTC

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