Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb,
28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at
26/0740Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1104Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 111 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 007/008-015/020-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NuukTórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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