Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/2301Z from Region 2302 (N10W73). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (20 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day two (21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 762 km/s at 18/2125Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/0754Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 19/0754Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14939
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (20 Mar, 22
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 109 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 032/046 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 022/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 015/018-007/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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