Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/1530Z from Region 2303 (N18W92). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at 28/2234Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 145
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/150
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  016/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  021/025-019/025-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%30%
Minor storm30%30%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm70%70%35%

All times in UTC

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