Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/0534Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (03 Apr) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Apr,
05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
481 km/s at 02/0839Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/2231Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 02/2023Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(05 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 121 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 135/125/125 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 014/020-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Norilsk, VorkutaThe solar wind speed is currently moderately high (591.6 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (20.12 p/cm3)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (20.12 p/cm3)
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