Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 April 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 16/0907Z from Region 2324 (N18E34). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 720 km/s at 16/2049Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/0503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Apr 150
  Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        16 Apr 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Apr  025/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  016/020-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%30%25%

All times in UTC

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