Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul,
31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at
28/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2130Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (31 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 101 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 105/107/110 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 007/008-014/018-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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