Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul,
01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
445 km/s at 30/2030Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1850Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 824 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (02 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 102 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 016/018-020/024-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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