Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1040Z from Region 2422 (S20W16). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep,
30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at
27/0743Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0434Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 476 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 128 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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