Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 September 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/0516Z from Region 2422 (S18W42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01
Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
385 km/s at 29/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Sep, 01 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Oct). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 129 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 007/008-008/008-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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