Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0021Z from Region 2443 (N05E67). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct,
01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
29/2025Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2018Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 29/1000Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 29/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 113 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/012-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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