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Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 November 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07/0021Z from Region 2448 (N05E37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 719 km/s at 07/0257Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 06/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/2232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5714 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Nov 115
  Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        07 Nov 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  028/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  014/020-014/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%30%30%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 00:51 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (543.7 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.13nT), the direction is slightly South (-6.86nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.75

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