Viewing archive of Friday, 18 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0509Z from Region 2469 (N19W15). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Dec,
20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 508 km/s at
17/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2232Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 933 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (19 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (20 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 117 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 030/042-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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