Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1137Z from Region 2480 (N02E88). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08
Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 669 km/s at 06/1038Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 05/2219Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/2336Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2110
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 100 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
OuluArkhangelsk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
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