Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/2203Z from Region 2480 (N04W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jan,
18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
16/0407Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1425Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 16/0406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4799 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 100 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 006/005-007/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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