Viewing archive of Monday, 18 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
18/2058Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1560 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 100 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 013/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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