Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 30/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 30/2307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/2217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (02 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 082 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 082/081/081 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 008/010-020/026-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 65% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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