Viewing archive of Friday, 15 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/1430Z from Region 2529 (N10W24). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 14/2215Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2538 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr,
17 Apr, 18 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 112 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 111/111/108 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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