Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Apr, 23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 469 km/s at 21/0853Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
21/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (23 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 077 Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 006/005-012/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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