Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 22/2115Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr, 26 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 079 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 007/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
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