Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/1400Z from Region 2546 (S07W21). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May,
23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 21/0520Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 21/0541Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 21/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 612 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (23 May) and quiet levels on day three (24
May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 098 Predicted 22 May-24 May 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 21 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 016/018-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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