Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 May 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 28/0656Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (29 May, 31 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 May).
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 May 088
  Predicted   29 May-31 May 090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        28 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 May  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  013/015-016/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%25%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%55%35%

All times in UTC

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