Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 June 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 08/1135Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1150 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 080
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun 080/082/085
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  005/005-007/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Luleå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (503 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-77nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.11

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